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Study on Uncertainty in Long-Range Transportation Planning

In This Article:

Transportation planners face a great deal of uncertainty in developing their strategic plans. An agency cannot predict what disruptions will emerge out of changing demographics and new technologies, let alone the obstacles presented by shifting climate patterns or black swan events that shake global and local supply chains. Even if perfect information were possible (and a trip to the Oracle at Delphi would stretch any budget), accounting for new and often compounding factors builds the planning process into a veritable mountain.

The frameworks and planning guidance used to account for those uncertainties are the keys to a planner’s success. This topic is the focus of an ongoing study conducted by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). They are seeking responses to a short (roughly 15-minute) questionnaire from transportation organizations, including RPOs. If your organization is comfortable sharing some or all of the steps it uses to assess various types of uncertainty (and the support or resources needed to account for it), that expertise could help share best practices. Specific examples may also be contacted for potential case study write-ups.

The questionnaire can be found at this link. Responses will be collected until March 17, 2023. For additional questions, please contact [email protected]

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